“At the heart of fear is uncertainty. If he could identify and accept even the worst possible outcome—without losing his resolve to act—he could eliminate uncertainty from the equation. He would strip fear of its power.”

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“Caesar did not destroy the Roman Republic. The Republic destroyed itself—one episode at a time—by refusing to see where they were headed.”

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“Don't let your sadness turn into anger, or your loneliness into hate. Channel what you feel into something good. Find ways to help people.”

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“Don't reward people for coming up with the right answer. Reward them for coming up with good arguments. Only good arguments can guide you to the right answer.”

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“Ending a war is easy. Creating peace is hard... We know that war demands sacrifice. But we fail to see that the demands of peace are greater still.”

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“Every leader has the power to do harm, but it's only when citizens know nothing of history that leaders find it possible to do evil on behalf of their people.”

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“fight terrorism like there is no negotiation, and negotiate peace like there is no terrorism.”

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“From Emerson to Thoreau to Gandhi to MLK to Mandela. One idea in many forms, passed along from one giant to another. Perhaps the greatest relay race in the history of inspiration...It's the lineage of an idea that has evolved and been adapted for two centuries.”

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“Greed and grievance have fueled many a conflict, but it is fear that has contributed the most to human suffering. It composes the most alluring cry with which to rally citizens and soldiers. It provides the easiest moral justification for the killing of other human beings.”

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“Historians should not be in the business of explaining as much as possible with as little as possible... our job as historians is to extract principles, not punchlines...”

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“History, it turns out, is not written by the victims, it is written by the storytellers... Even the defeated get to tell their story—and in it, they are the heroes.”

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“Human beings are great at starting wars. We are also reasonably capable of ending wars, given enough time. What we struggle with, is avoiding wars altogether... When ancient kingdoms came into contact with one another, no matter how many gifts were exchanged in the early days, wars of domination eventually resulted.”

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“Humanity now finds itself hosting a high-stakes competition. It is a race between technological progress and societal progress—between our ability to create and destroy, and our ability to govern, manage, and coexist.”

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“If you enter Korea to avoid another China, and enter Vietnam to avoid another Korea, and enter Cambodia to avoid another Vietnam—at what point do you begin to worry that you are drawing lessons and inspiration from too shallow a pool of historical events?”

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“May you find peace where it exists and create peace where it does not.”

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“Strategy has to meet the demands of simple logic, but it should never become a slave to it.”

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“The greatest threat to security has always been—and remains—the perception of insecurity. We just find a way to resolve this paradox before it resolves itself through Armageddon.”

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“The myth of the pivotal event has done considerable damage to our understanding of cause and effect as it relates to human affairs... For those who wish to predict the future—or avoid the mistakes of the past—pivotal moments are among the most dangerous of history's artifacts.”

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“The phrase 'this is just like' strings together four simple words in a seemingly innocuous way, but it does so in a manner that might do immeasurable harm when strategizing in high-stakes environments.”

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“The prophet Muhammed's death in 632 was followed by what, at the time, was simply a disagreement over succession... There is no reason to think that the fighting that followed was meant to evolve into a conflict that would last 1,400 years... the Sunni-Shi'a split.”

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“This danger is not new, but it is always magnified during those times when a population is empowered at a faster rate than it is educated... The elite guardians of wisdom will be rendered useless if the masses are incapable of understanding their language, unable to appreciate their concerns, or uninterested even in considering their advice.”

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“Those who blindly replicate what 'succeeded' and abandon what 'failed' do not only relinquish the mantle of leadership, they also risk losing their status as human beings. They reduce themselves to mere algorithms—and mediocre ones at that.”

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“Uncertainty abounds for one reason above all else: we have reached a level of scale and complexity in our societal evolution that allows us to do more and more—but control less and less.”

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“Waging war takes guts, but you have the comfort of knowing that your friends stand beside you. Fighting for peace takes even greater courage, because all too often, you stand alone.”

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“While good leaders exhibit the strength to learn from bad outcomes, great leaders show the wisdom not to overweight outcomes, whether they be bad or good... it is misguided to second-guess your actions simply because the outcome was rotten... Chance, error, and unknowns also play a role.”

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“You can't solve mysteries through guesswork. You start with what you know, and continue adding in more of what you know, until there is nothing left of what you know. Only then do yo even begin to add logic, reason, and speculation. Guessing is truly a last resort... an admission of failure.”

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